Chris Lanier's Blog

I think you're right on with your view in all of this.  As an enthusiast it might be cool to have CableCARDs opened up for all of us but I don't think it will help make Media Center more mainstream.  While Media Center and a lot of ideas that go with it are cool I think the best way to get those ideas to everyones home is through electronic boxes that most everyone will buy at some point, which is Game Consoles and DVD/Blu Ray players.  It's already evident that they are continuing to sell, promote, and upgrade these devices to play almost anything.  As for TV (cable or otherwise) I think that digital downloads are the only way they see it going for them because of the money they can make.

I think Media Center and it's users are about as big as it's going to get.  That's just me pessimistic (and probably right) opinion.

Perhaps you're expecting a little too much a little too fast. If you lived through the introduction of color television you'd know that it took about 10 years. First it was on display in department stores, then a few people had sets and you were "invited over" for Steve Allen on Sunday. Then by 1963 the network night time schedules went full color. It was the addition of CBS (who lost the early war) and ABC that made it happen.

These tuners will show up by mail order and retail. I would expect to see them in Fry's, available on NewEgg,  Tiger Direct, etc. Also there is going to be a robust re-cycling of the AMD tuners on Ebay as those of us with the OEM tuners upgrade to the Ceton and sell off the ATI devices.

I won't miss AMD or Dell, they were not available for support and aside from a download source for firmware updates, were really of no help at all. They could decide to join in the retail channel or they could pass the product off to one of their graphic card distributor companies like Diamond or Vision Tek.

We still have a battle about copy protection where some cable companies restrict all of their digital channels other than OTA offerings. With enough customers, they'll hopefully fall in line with the way Verizon operates.

Things move faster than they did back in the 50s, but this move will get more units out there and that means more people will be exposed to the system, it also means that that legion of "computer helpers" will learn the tricks of installing and operating the cablecard devices.

We'll see what happens, but don't look for a fast answer.

John

I'm not looking for a fast answer.  My point was that I see a lot of people taking this CableCARD news and doing the usual "this is game changing" attitude in reference to the Media Center platform.

My point is that if these tuners are sold online only, it really does nothing to advance the platform.  What it means is that everyone who logs into TGB can now buy a tuner.  It increases the number of CableCARD users, but does little to increase the overall userbase.

Microsoft is marketing Media Center and Extender’s in the Mircrosoft Store. That in the near future will be in every major mall in America

Really?  Where did you get this information?  In the leaked product slides they market Media Center as "PCTV" and showed nothing relating to using Media Center in a living room (showed Media Center on the office/kitchen on desktop/touchscreen PCs)

Chris,

I think it does open the market because the biggest point for me is it allows small companies like mine to now sell and push media cetner now that I can sell cable card. I didn't push media center because I didn't have the capital to get cable labs certified on my pc's and without hd it wasn't worth pushing. I don't think I am alone in this either I chat constantly with other small compan owners I have met threw this forum and they all fill the same way. This gives us small integrators/automation people a chance to compete on a big scale.

Also as you know I defected to Sage and have been pushing it in sales with the hd-pvr but if this swings the way I thnink it will I might change back myself I definately will be pushing it to customers.

All that being said it is not the icing on the cake yet. More extenders and better codec support(on extenders hopefully with blu ray managed copy) would help push this even more than sage.

Whereas Hauppauge is supposed to be releasing their new tuners by year end, I wonder if they are buying the tech somewhere else.  Perhaps they are buying the business from AMD or plan to distribute for Ceton.  Just a thought.

So "TV on PC" may be just what is necessary to get Joe familiar with Media Center. If cable companies allow the likes of GeekSquad to install CableCards along with the tuners, Joe, who walks into the likes of Magnolia and sees the familiar Media Center interface on a big screen with nothing but a remote on the coffee table, may just be intrigued enough to try out Media Center in a living room setting and could decide to upgrade his PC.

This may also show cable companies that they can actually profit from CableCard by outsourcing installation to companies that sell the technology that utilizes it.

I agree with Chris that the Xbox is where they will always lead in messaging and investment when it comes to the living room.  Media Center+extenders is essentially a competitor for mindshare there.  So, if I were Ceton or one of these card manufacturers, I'd seriously consider pitching the tuner to the masses as a way to turn your Xbox 360 into a PVR with no monthly fees.*

* Requires a computer with Windows Vista or Windows 7 Home Premium or higher and a home network.

I think that would be very compelling to a meaningful percentage of Xbox 360 owners.  Why even lead with the Media Center brand to that audience when they'll think of it as an Xbox experience?  Isn't that, in a nutshell, the killer capability that these cards offer and the best audience to hear that message?

So, yeah, I do think this change can open things up, but not necessarily through a groundswell of love for Media Center itself.  I am glad they're continuing to work that angle, too, and think this will give Media Center some momentum.  If I were a systems builder, this is an optional upgrade I'd try to get good at selling because it encourages upgrades to other hardware.  

Opening up cablecard support is the first step in the right direction for Microsoft in a long time.  The next thing that has to happen for me is new (V3?) extenders w/ support for H.264 and Blu-Ray rips.  I don't mind going through a little pain to rip Blu-ray, similar to what we did for V1 extenders in MCE 2005.  But I don't want to have to convert them from native to something odd, like divx or xvid.  Like I said, if its not here by November, I am going SageTV.

There are two clear market openings this news provides:

1. Enthusiasts' friends and family.  A drop in the bucket in terms of mass adoption, and certainly not a game-changer, but a market nonetheless.  

2. A much more trustworthy and flexible platform for custom installations (hi-end).

Honestly, I see WMC being a high-end solution for the custom market + those who have the ability to figure out all the bits who aren't rich.  

However, that does not preclude potential for other markets.  These announcements (along with the improvements overall with Win 7 MC) still point to MSFT investing in this platform as some kind of loss leader.  There are a slew of loss leaders in MSFT's arsenal.  WMC doesn't have to be profitable to be successful in a company as long-term-strategic as MSFT.

Expanding the Marketplace is a red herring in any case.   Even the original dreams and desires of Media Center would never have made it "mainstream", and yet Microsoft decided to go into the market anyway.

No "normal" person will exchange a cable-supplied DVR (does not break) for a computer (can break).  

No "normal" person really needs to integrate their Home into an integrated Media experience, let alone via computer (can break)

Media Center's marketplace has always been and will continue to be the smaller market of people who want more than the generic experience and are willing to pay in money or time to get it.

The cablecard news makes getting "more" easier for this marketplace.  Making THAT easier means more people will find themselves thinking it might work for them.  it makes Media Center more successful, but it does not make Media Center an iPod/iPhone phenonemenon.

It means that in its current market, it is now in a position to do better (finally).

Does it need to "expand" the marketplace?  To get to Jon's (ultimate) digital dreams, sure it does.  But we have to remember the baseline "dream" of Microsoft was to enter a non-mainstream market (people who want to drive their TV's via the compuer) and dominate it...   for that game, this news isn't so much game-changing as it is game-saving.

If however, you think the game was "expanding the market", then no, it's game-neutral since no one's really playing that game anyway :)  

Microsoft probably hopes that it will be a future game to play, but really we are nowhere NEAR that timeframe yet.

Well put, Sgt. Pokey.   However, I have to say that I have converted a few normal people into Media Center... even when it meant buying a new Dell to do it.  I can be quite persuasive in my demos...

Chris,

  Are you able to receive the Dish Network channels  (100 -9999) through the Windows 7 Media Center?  I'm starting to worry from the postings I'm seeing that WMC will not integrate well with a Dish Network box.  I have an older STB (Dish Network 322).  I'm just trying to get this set up now.  Please see my one post.  I can't sync the Gateway remote control with the STB to get the upper channels on WMC.  Thanks.